Sharad Pawar’s NCP is facing fresh pressure over its political future after an internal assessment indicated that most of its legislators and parliamentarians favour joining the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance rather than merging with the Congress.
The finding has sharpened uncertainty inside the party at a time when speculation over a possible Congress merger has gathered pace in Maharashtra politics. Senior figures in the opposition camp have acknowledged discussions around closer organisational alignment, but NCP leaders have publicly sought to play down talk of either a merger or a shift to the ruling bloc.
Party insiders said the internal survey showed only a small section of elected representatives preferred a full merger with the Congress. The larger group is understood to have argued that aligning with the ruling establishment would offer greater political security, particularly before future parliamentary and assembly contests. The NCP currently has 10 MLAs, eight Lok Sabha MPs and one Rajya Sabha MP, making the mood of its elected members central to any decision on its next course.
The party is part of the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi with the Congress and the Shiv Sena. The alliance was weakened in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly election, where the Mahayuti led by the BJP won a commanding majority. The opposition’s combined strength was reduced sharply, with the Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP left with a limited legislative presence in the 288-member House.
The latest churn comes against the backdrop of the 2023 split in the Nationalist Congress Party, when Ajit Pawar broke away with a large group of MLAs and joined the ruling alliance. The Election Commission later recognised the Ajit Pawar faction as the original NCP, while the Sharad Pawar-led group was named Nationalist Congress Party. The split left the elder Pawar with a smaller but symbolically important formation built around his personal authority, western Maharashtra networks and loyalist leaders.
The Congress merger proposal is seen by some opposition strategists as a way to prevent further fragmentation. Supporters of that option argue that Pawar’s faction shares a broad ideological space with the Congress and that a merger could consolidate anti-BJP votes before future elections. They also believe it would give Supriya Sule and other loyalists a wider national platform within a larger party structure.
Those favouring an NDA move take a more pragmatic view. They point to the ruling alliance’s dominance in Maharashtra, the BJP’s organisational advantage and the limited room available to smaller opposition parties after successive electoral reverses. Some elected representatives are said to be concerned that remaining in a weakened opposition formation could expose them to local pressure, funding constraints and uncertainty over winnable seats.
The reported preference for the NDA has also raised questions over whether the NCP could negotiate ministerial accommodation if it shifts sides. Party circles have discussed the possibility of representation both in Maharashtra and at the Centre, though no formal proposal has been acknowledged by the leadership.
State president Shashikant Shinde has rejected talk that the party is preparing either to merge with the Congress or join the NDA. He has described the speculation as an attempt to create confusion among workers and destabilise the opposition. His remarks reflect the leadership’s concern that public discussion of defections or merger options could damage morale ahead of local and organisational battles.
Congress leaders have offered differing signals. Some have said like-minded forces are welcome and that discussions on opposition consolidation are natural, while others have avoided confirming any formal merger plan. The ambiguity has allowed rival camps to push their preferred narratives, with the ruling alliance watching closely for signs of a split in Pawar’s ranks.
The issue has gained momentum after comments by NCP MP Amol Kolhe triggered speculation about his political position. Kolhe later clarified that his remarks had been taken out of context, but the episode underlined the unease within the party and the sensitivity of any reference to the Mahayuti.
Sharad Pawar, 85, remains the central decision-maker. His political career has included exits from and returns to the Congress fold before the formation of the NCP in 1999. That history has made talk of another realignment plausible to supporters and critics alike. Yet the risks are considerable. A merger with the Congress could alienate those seeking power-sharing with the ruling alliance, while an NDA entry would test the credibility of Pawar’s long-standing anti-BJP positioning.
