Jaishankar flags major food crisis from global conflicts
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a “major food crisis” within months as wars disrupt grain and fertiliser supplies, intensifying pressure on already strained Global South economies.
Speaking at the Asia Society in New York on Monday, Jaishankar said the Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts had produced a “devastating impact” on developing economies, with food, fuel, fertiliser and finance coming under simultaneous pressure.
“We are already looking at major significant fertiliser shortages,” he said, adding that some major grain exporters were facing difficulties in shipping supplies. “So there is gonna be a major food crisis probably, you know, in the coming months.”
Jaishankar also pointed to the prospect of a strong El Niño weather pattern as an additional threat to agricultural production. He described the combined pressures as “very very stressful” for the Global South, where many economies have less fiscal room to absorb higher import costs or shield consumers from price increases.
His warning comes as international agencies are recording mounting strains across agricultural commodity and input markets. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said this month that disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have severely affected fertiliser markets, while pressure on Black Sea trade routes has complicated grain movements.
FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu told a ministerial meeting in New York on September 24 that the Gulf normally supplies 30 to 35 per cent of global urea, half of sulphur exports and 20 to 30 per cent of ammonia. He said 1.5 million to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade had been delayed, while diammonium phosphate prices had risen 26 per cent.
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for energy and fertiliser shipments, has been a particular source of vulnerability. Qu said tanker movements through the waterway had fallen by more than 90 per cent amid the conflict. Under normal conditions, the strait carries 20 to 30 per cent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to FAO.
The agency has warned that fertiliser scarcity can feed through to harvests with a delay because farmers must apply nutrients at specific stages of the crop cycle. Missed deliveries can force growers to cut application rates, potentially reducing yields and tightening food supplies later in 2026 and into 2027.
Food prices are already showing renewed pressure. FAO’s Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August, up 1.9 per cent from July and 2.5 per cent from a year earlier. The agency attributed the increase partly to adverse weather, the Middle East conflict and logistical disruption around Black Sea trade.
International wheat, maize and rice export prices generally increased in August. US hard red winter wheat quotations were 41.1 per cent above their level a year earlier, while US maize export prices were 20.7 per cent higher, FAO data showed. Ukrainian grain trade continued to face logistical bottlenecks.
Jaishankar said energy markets were another immediate concern because supplies remained tight and political actions affecting oil flows could add to market complications. Higher energy costs can also raise fertiliser production and transport expenses, magnifying the effect on agriculture and food prices.
He linked the pressures to a broader “4F” challenge — food, fuel, fertiliser and finance — confronting developing countries. Conflict-driven uncertainty, he said, also encourages capital to move towards safer destinations, leaving Global South economies facing tighter financing conditions alongside higher commodity bills.
The World Bank said in June that global food and nutrition security remained fragile, with fertiliser prices during the first five months of 2026 running 35 per cent above the same period of 2025. Multilateral development banks subsequently pledged greater cooperation to strengthen fertiliser supply chains, including investment in production, processing, storage and transport.
Bangladesh illustrates the exposure of import-dependent economies. The World Bank approved emergency financing in June to support fertiliser imports for rice production after fuel and input-price shocks squeezed farmers and finances.
Speaking at the Asia Society in New York on Monday, Jaishankar said the Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts had produced a “devastating impact” on developing economies, with food, fuel, fertiliser and finance coming under simultaneous pressure.
“We are already looking at major significant fertiliser shortages,” he said, adding that some major grain exporters were facing difficulties in shipping supplies. “So there is gonna be a major food crisis probably, you know, in the coming months.”
Jaishankar also pointed to the prospect of a strong El Niño weather pattern as an additional threat to agricultural production. He described the combined pressures as “very very stressful” for the Global South, where many economies have less fiscal room to absorb higher import costs or shield consumers from price increases.
His warning comes as international agencies are recording mounting strains across agricultural commodity and input markets. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization said this month that disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have severely affected fertiliser markets, while pressure on Black Sea trade routes has complicated grain movements.
FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu told a ministerial meeting in New York on September 24 that the Gulf normally supplies 30 to 35 per cent of global urea, half of sulphur exports and 20 to 30 per cent of ammonia. He said 1.5 million to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade had been delayed, while diammonium phosphate prices had risen 26 per cent.
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for energy and fertiliser shipments, has been a particular source of vulnerability. Qu said tanker movements through the waterway had fallen by more than 90 per cent amid the conflict. Under normal conditions, the strait carries 20 to 30 per cent of internationally traded fertiliser, according to FAO.
The agency has warned that fertiliser scarcity can feed through to harvests with a delay because farmers must apply nutrients at specific stages of the crop cycle. Missed deliveries can force growers to cut application rates, potentially reducing yields and tightening food supplies later in 2026 and into 2027.
Food prices are already showing renewed pressure. FAO’s Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August, up 1.9 per cent from July and 2.5 per cent from a year earlier. The agency attributed the increase partly to adverse weather, the Middle East conflict and logistical disruption around Black Sea trade.
International wheat, maize and rice export prices generally increased in August. US hard red winter wheat quotations were 41.1 per cent above their level a year earlier, while US maize export prices were 20.7 per cent higher, FAO data showed. Ukrainian grain trade continued to face logistical bottlenecks.
Jaishankar said energy markets were another immediate concern because supplies remained tight and political actions affecting oil flows could add to market complications. Higher energy costs can also raise fertiliser production and transport expenses, magnifying the effect on agriculture and food prices.
He linked the pressures to a broader “4F” challenge — food, fuel, fertiliser and finance — confronting developing countries. Conflict-driven uncertainty, he said, also encourages capital to move towards safer destinations, leaving Global South economies facing tighter financing conditions alongside higher commodity bills.
The World Bank said in June that global food and nutrition security remained fragile, with fertiliser prices during the first five months of 2026 running 35 per cent above the same period of 2025. Multilateral development banks subsequently pledged greater cooperation to strengthen fertiliser supply chains, including investment in production, processing, storage and transport.
Bangladesh illustrates the exposure of import-dependent economies. The World Bank approved emergency financing in June to support fertiliser imports for rice production after fuel and input-price shocks squeezed farmers and finances.