Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has been projected as the surprise frontrunner in Tamil Nadu by the Axis My India exit poll, while the National Democratic Alliance is forecast to sweep Assam and the Congress-led United Democratic Front is tipped to edge out the Left Democratic Front in Kerala.Axis My India’s projection gives TVK 98 to 120 seats in Tamil Nadu’s 234-member Assembly, putting the new party within striking distance of the 118-seat majority mark in its first electoral contest. The DMK-led alliance is placed at 92 to 110 seats, while the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance is shown slipping sharply, with the contest transformed from a traditional Dravidian bipolar race into a three-cornered battle dominated by Vijay’s entry.
Tamil Nadu voted on April 23, with counting scheduled for May 4. If the projection is borne out, it would mark one of the most dramatic debuts in state politics since the rise of cinema-linked parties under M. G. Ramachandran and later Jayalalithaa. Vijay, who launched Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam in 2024, campaigned on a plank of political renewal, governance reform, youth mobilisation and an attack on entrenched party networks.
Other exit polls have been less emphatic about TVK’s chances, with several agencies placing Chief Minister M. K. Stalin’s DMK-led alliance ahead. That divergence makes Tamil Nadu the most contested exit-poll story of the election cycle. TVK’s projected vote share, however, suggests that Vijay has succeeded in converting star appeal into a measurable political base, particularly among young voters, urban segments and first-time participants.
Kerala’s projection points to another possible regime change, with the UDF forecast to return to power after a decade. Axis My India has placed the Congress-led front at 44 per cent vote share, ahead of the LDF at 39 per cent and the National Democratic Alliance at 14 per cent. The state’s 140-member Assembly requires 71 seats for a majority.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had broken Kerala’s four-decade pattern of alternating governments by leading the LDF to a second consecutive term in 2021, when the alliance won 99 seats. The latest projection indicates that anti-incumbency, welfare-delivery fatigue, controversies over governance and sharper UDF mobilisation may have narrowed the ruling front’s room for recovery. At the same time, the LDF remains competitive enough for the final count to matter, especially in constituencies where margins have historically been small.
Assam presents a different picture, with the National Democratic Alliance projected to secure a third consecutive term under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Axis My India has forecast 88 to 100 seats for the ruling alliance in the 126-member Assembly, comfortably above the 64-seat majority mark. The Bharatiya Janata Party alone is projected at 70 to 80 seats, with allies Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front adding to the tally.
The Congress-led alliance is projected at 24 to 36 seats in Assam, limiting its attempt to regain ground in a state it once dominated. The ruling side’s campaign leaned heavily on welfare schemes, infrastructure expansion, identity politics, border and migration issues, and Sarma’s centrality as the alliance’s chief strategist. The projection also suggests that the BJP-led formation has consolidated support across both Upper Assam and parts of the Brahmaputra Valley.
Exit polls are estimates, not results, and past elections have shown that projections can miss late swings, turnout effects and constituency-level variation. Yet the Axis My India numbers, taken alongside other polls, point to three distinct political signals: possible disruption in Tamil Nadu, a UDF opening in Kerala and continuity in Assam.
For national politics, the projections carry wider implications. A TVK breakthrough would complicate coalition calculations in Tamil Nadu and weaken both the DMK and AIADMK as the state’s dominant poles. A UDF victory in Kerala would strengthen Congress morale in a state where it has remained organisationally resilient despite national setbacks. A strong National Democratic Alliance showing in Assam would reinforce the BJP’s hold over the Northeast and deepen Sarma’s standing within the party structure.