Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold talks with Canadian counterpart Mark Carney in New Delhi on Monday, marking a high-stakes attempt to stabilise strained bilateral relations and advance cooperation in technology, trade and energy, including a long-term uranium supply arrangement.Officials familiar with the preparations said discussions are expected to culminate in a 10-year uranium supply agreement valued at about US$2 billion, alongside a set of sector-specific accords spanning oil and gas collaboration, environmental initiatives, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, education and cultural exchange. Carney arrived in the capital on Sunday evening, beginning a visit closely watched by diplomats and industry leaders in both countries.
The meeting follows a prolonged period of diplomatic tension that disrupted political dialogue and slowed commercial engagement. Allegations surrounding the killing of a Sikh separatist figure in Canada in 2023 led to an unprecedented public dispute between Ottawa and New Delhi, including reciprocal diplomatic expulsions. Trade talks were paused and political exchanges curtailed. While commercial ties continued, the atmosphere dampened prospects for deeper cooperation in areas both governments had previously identified as strategic.
Energy security is set to dominate the agenda. Canada, one of the world’s leading uranium producers, has supplied fuel for civilian nuclear reactors in the past under a civil nuclear cooperation agreement concluded in 2010 and operationalised in 2013. Uranium deliveries resumed after decades of hiatus, supporting fuel requirements for power generation. A fresh 10-year framework would offer longer-term certainty to nuclear operators while strengthening Canada’s foothold in a market seeking to expand low-carbon electricity capacity.
New Delhi has outlined plans to raise the share of nuclear energy in its electricity mix as part of a broader push to cut emissions intensity and meet climate targets. Additional uranium supplies could help existing reactors operate at higher capacity factors and underpin proposals for new units. For Ottawa, the deal would reinforce its position as a reliable supplier of critical minerals and nuclear fuel at a time when global demand is projected to rise amid renewed interest in atomic power.
Beyond uranium, officials indicated that memoranda covering oil and gas cooperation may focus on investment facilitation and technology exchange, rather than large-scale supply shifts. Canada’s energy sector has been seeking diversified markets, particularly for liquefied natural gas, while New Delhi continues to balance its import basket amid shifting geopolitical currents and price volatility.
Technology partnerships are another central theme. Both governments have invested heavily in artificial intelligence and quantum research ecosystems. India’s National Quantum Mission and Canada’s established quantum hubs, including those in Waterloo and Montreal, offer potential for collaborative research, talent mobility and joint ventures. AI applications in health care, agriculture and climate modelling are expected to feature in discussions, reflecting shared ambitions to position their economies at the frontier of emerging technologies.
Education and cultural links, long a stabilising force in the relationship, are also under scrutiny. Canada hosts a large diaspora and remains a preferred destination for students, although visa processing and political tensions have at times complicated flows. Agreements aimed at academic exchange and skills development could signal a desire to insulate people-to-people ties from broader diplomatic disputes.
Trade figures underscore both the promise and the limitations of the partnership. Bilateral merchandise trade has hovered in the range of US$8–10 billion annually in recent years, modest compared with each country’s global trade footprint. Negotiations toward an Early Progress Trade Agreement were paused during the diplomatic fallout. Business groups on both sides have pressed for renewed momentum, citing complementarities in clean technology, agri-food, aerospace and digital services.
Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, brings a reputation for technocratic pragmatism and climate policy expertise. His engagement is seen by some analysts as an effort to reframe the relationship around economic and environmental cooperation while managing political sensitivities. Modi, preparing for a series of international engagements, has signalled readiness to advance partnerships aligned with economic growth and energy transition priorities.
Strategists caution that structural differences and unresolved grievances will not disappear overnight. The Sikh diaspora issue remains politically charged in Canada, while New Delhi has consistently rejected allegations of involvement in extraterritorial actions. Diplomatic channels have remained open, and security officials have maintained contact, but trust must be rebuilt incrementally.
Business leaders have expressed guarded optimism. Energy companies are assessing how a long-term uranium framework might interact with domestic nuclear expansion plans. Technology firms are examining prospects for joint research funding and streamlined data governance frameworks. Universities and research institutions have indicated interest in expanded scholarships and collaborative laboratories, particularly in advanced computing and clean energy materials.