Bodies of smoke rising across the narrow channels of the Strait of Hormuz have signalled a dramatic escalation of maritime conflict that threatens a major artery of global energy flows after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps reported a sixth ship had been struck in waters it has declared closed. Iranian state media broadcast footage purporting to show black smoke rising from a vessel after what Tehran described as military action against shipping in and around the strait, a route used to carry about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and gas supplies. Iranian commanders have asserted that no vessel has the right to transit the strategic waterway, and that any attempt to do so invites attack. Iran’s declaration of closure followed a joint air offensive by the United States and Israel on 28 February, which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader, and several senior commanders, prompting deep shock both within Iran and across the Middle East. Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings via radio and media channels that the strait would be closed to all traffic as part of retaliatory operations, causing a near-total halt in commercial shipping and prompting major operators to seek shelter or rerouting options.
The sixth incident involving a vessel adds to a pattern of violent encounters in the strait and adjacent waters. Iran’s claims of attacks on shipping have been difficult to independently verify, as international monitoring organisations and some governments dispute aspects of Tehran’s narrative, pointing to inconsistencies in publicly released imagery and reports. Nevertheless, tanker traffic has plummeted sharply since the first warnings were issued, with maritime data indicating that many vessels have opted to anchor outside the strait rather than risk transit.
The implications for energy markets have been immediate and disruptive. Brent crude prices spiked more than 10 per cent on global exchanges on the back of mounting fears that sustained closure of the strait could choke a crucial supply line for crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Analysts warn that extended disruption to flows through the waterway, which links producers in the Gulf such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates with consumers in Asia and Europe, has the potential to intensify cost-of-living pressures worldwide.
Maritime insurers have responded by hiking war-risk premiums for voyages in the region to record levels, in some cases more than doubling the cost for tankers crossing the corridor. This surge in insurance costs, combined with the threat of direct military action, has led several shipowners to suspend traffic entirely through the strait, exacerbating logistical bottlenecks and prompting searches for alternative routes that are longer and more costly.
International military forces in the region remain on high alert. The United States Central Command has maintained that the strait remains legally open under international law, while acknowledging the heightened risk environment. Western naval assets, including carrier groups and destroyers, have been repositioned to provide surveillance and escort capabilities, though there is little sign that commercial traffic is prepared to resume under current conditions.
Diplomatic ripples from the conflict have extended beyond the Gulf. Governments in Asia, particularly those heavily dependent on imported energy, have expressed grave concern about the security of supply. Business leaders in India, for example, have pointed to potential impacts on fuel markets and inflation if the stalemate at Hormuz persists, noting that a large share of the country’s oil imports passes through the strait.
Amid these tensions, military engagements have spread across the Middle East. Tehran’s wider retaliation to the US-Israel offensive has included drone and missile strikes on American and allied facilities in Gulf states, as well as incidents involving commercial infrastructure. Multiple countries bordering the Gulf have reported intercepting Iranian projectiles, adding layers of complexity to an already volatile regional security landscape.
The death of Ayatollah Khamenei has left a significant power vacuum in Tehran, and Iran’s leadership has signalled no willingness to de-escalate as long as its demands for deterrence and retaliation are unmet. The Revolutionary Guard’s vows to contest passage through the Strait of Hormuz reflect both strategic defiance and a message to global actors that Tehran’s capacity for maritime confrontation remains robust despite international isolation.