The political environment has become increasingly unpredictable following the Shiv Sena split in 2022, which left the state’s politics fragmented. Fadnavis, who has been a crucial part of the BJP’s strategy in Maharashtra, has reportedly reaffirmed his position as the party’s lead for the chief minister role. Despite mounting speculation and internal discussions about potential leadership changes within the BJP and its alliance partners, sources say that Fadnavis continues to enjoy the full backing of the party leadership.
However, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena group, which controls a substantial portion of the Sena's legislative support, has been vocal about its ambitions and strategic maneuvers to cement its position within the state’s governance structure. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who is in power alongside Fadnavis in a coalition government, has suggested that a model similar to the one used by Bihar's Nitish Kumar may be the solution to Maharashtra’s political crisis.
Nitish Kumar’s approach in Bihar, where he has navigated shifting alliances and managed to retain his chief minister’s position despite numerous changes in political alignment, is being eyed by the Shinde camp as a potential blueprint. Shinde himself has emphasized the need for greater flexibility and adaptation in coalition politics, indicating that his group might be ready to work with both the BJP and other regional parties, much like Kumar has done in his home state. The comparison is seen as an attempt to build a broader consensus within Maharashtra’s fractured political landscape, where multiple factions and competing interests often result in deadlock.
While the BJP's loyalty to Fadnavis remains unwavering for now, sources within the party suggest that the leadership is closely monitoring the dynamics within the Shiv Sena. If the Shinde faction grows in strength and successfully brokers a new alliance with other regional players, it could potentially shift the balance of power in the state, leading to further negotiations on who leads the government.
For Fadnavis, the situation is delicate. As the BJP’s most prominent face in Maharashtra, he has consistently been at the center of the party’s political calculations. However, despite his key role, his political future in the state is not immune to challenges. In recent months, speculation about his leadership has swirled, with some party insiders acknowledging that the BJP might face pressure to make adjustments if the alliance’s internal dynamics shift too much.
The situation has also sparked a larger debate about leadership models and the evolving nature of coalition governments in India. Nitish Kumar’s leadership style, often characterized by pragmatic decisions to keep alliances intact, is seen by some as a necessity in today’s highly fluid political environment, where ideological boundaries are increasingly blurred. For Maharashtra, the Shinde group’s desire to draw inspiration from Kumar’s approach may signal the need for more cooperation across party lines, particularly as state elections draw closer.
For now, both the BJP and Shiv Sena factions are engaged in a balancing act. While the BJP may feel secure in its hold over the state through Fadnavis’s leadership, the Shinde Sena’s growing political influence cannot be overlooked. Shinde’s comparison to Nitish Kumar underscores the shifting nature of Indian politics, where alliances can change rapidly and new political formulas are continually being tested.