President Muizzu’s victory represents a significant shift in Maldives’ foreign policy stance, with his predecessor Yameen having favored China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects during his tenure. Muizzu's administration, while acknowledging China’s investments, appears committed to strengthening ties with India, which has long been a vital partner in Maldives’ development. The move comes after mounting domestic concerns over debt incurred through Chinese infrastructure loans, which have sparked fears of economic dependence on Beijing.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has welcomed this policy realignment, with both nations expressing a shared vision for a prosperous and secure Indian Ocean region. The geopolitical stakes in the Indian Ocean are significant, as the Maldives' location is crucial to key global shipping routes. India, as a regional power, has consistently viewed the Maldives as an integral part of its neighborhood first policy, and the return to closer cooperation marks a strategic win for New Delhi.
Under Yameen’s administration, the Maldives had signed a series of infrastructure deals with Chinese companies, significantly increasing its debt burden. The ambitious projects, including a bridge connecting the capital Male to the airport and extensive housing developments, were funded largely through Chinese loans. However, the financial strain resulting from these projects became a point of contention within the country, particularly after Yameen's defeat in 2018, which saw a re-evaluation of China’s role in Maldives' economy.
The India-Maldives relationship, which had cooled during Yameen’s tenure, now appears poised for a renewed phase of cooperation. India has already extended significant financial assistance to the Maldives, including a $1.4 billion aid package in 2018. The recent change in leadership could see an acceleration in joint development projects, focusing on areas such as healthcare, education, and sustainable development.
While China remains an important player in the Maldives’ economic landscape, the Muizzu administration is likely to tread cautiously in balancing the competing interests of the two Asian giants. China's economic outreach to the Maldives under the BRI has resulted in substantial investments, but concerns have been raised over the long-term sustainability of these projects. The fear of falling into a debt trap, a criticism often associated with China's global infrastructure initiative, has sparked calls for greater transparency and fiscal responsibility in future engagements.
India, on the other hand, has emphasized its role as a non-intrusive partner, offering developmental aid and technical expertise without creating heavy debt burdens. New Delhi’s efforts to position itself as a reliable neighbor have also included projects focused on grassroots development, such as building water and sanitation infrastructure, and providing scholarships for Maldivian students.
The Maldives’ foreign policy pivot back to India also holds significant security implications. Both nations share concerns over the growing presence of external actors in the Indian Ocean, particularly in light of China's increasing naval footprint in the region. The Indian government has been keen to expand its security cooperation with Maldives through joint military exercises and maritime surveillance initiatives, aimed at ensuring regional stability.
The geopolitical realignment is also reflective of broader regional trends, where smaller nations in South Asia are navigating the complex dynamics of China’s growing influence. Countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh have also faced similar dilemmas over balancing ties between India and China, underscoring the wider implications of Maldives' foreign policy decisions.
President Muizzu has indicated that while he values China’s contributions to the Maldives’ development, he seeks to ensure that the nation's sovereignty and long-term interests are safeguarded. His administration is expected to review major infrastructure deals signed during Yameen’s tenure, with an emphasis on maintaining economic independence. In this regard, the renewed partnership with India could offer an alternative model for growth, one that is less reliant on large-scale foreign debt.
The recalibration of Maldives’ foreign policy comes at a time of increasing global attention on the Indian Ocean region, as both India and China vie for strategic footholds in key maritime territories. India’s diplomatic success in re-establishing close ties with Maldives will likely have far-reaching consequences for regional security and economic cooperation, as New Delhi continues to strengthen its presence in the Indian Ocean.
China’s response to this shift has been measured, with Beijing emphasizing that its relationship with the Maldives remains strong. Chinese officials have noted that they respect the Maldives’ sovereignty and its right to determine its own foreign policy. However, it is clear that the resurgence of India-Maldives ties will necessitate a recalibration of China’s own approach in the region.