The controversy escalated after Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a key adviser to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, suggested that the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan might encourage China to interfere with the Brahmaputra’s waters, affecting India's supply. The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, governs the distribution of water from six rivers between India and Pakistan, and its suspension has fuelled diplomatic tensions in the region.
Chief Minister Sarma dismissed the claim as a “scare narrative” lacking factual basis, underscoring the geographical reality that the Brahmaputra originates in the Tibetan Plateau within China but gains volume and strength as it flows through the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. His remarks reflected confidence in India’s water management and diplomatic channels, pushing back against what he described as an attempt to stir unnecessary alarm.
The Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, is one of Asia’s major transboundary rivers, flowing through China, India, and Bangladesh. It plays a vital role in the ecology, agriculture, and livelihoods of millions in Northeast India. Given the river’s importance, concerns over upstream water projects in China have been a long-standing issue in India’s strategic and environmental discourse.
China has developed several hydroelectric projects on the Brahmaputra’s upper reaches, including the Zangmu Dam and the Jiacha Dam. These installations have raised questions in Indian policy circles about water security, but Chinese authorities have consistently maintained that their projects comply with international norms and will not adversely affect downstream flows.
Experts note that while China’s growing infrastructure on the Brahmaputra is monitored closely by Indian agencies, the country lacks a formal water-sharing agreement with China, unlike the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. This absence of a binding bilateral pact adds complexity to managing the river’s waters and addressing any disputes that may arise.
India’s approach has involved diplomatic engagement with China alongside domestic measures to enhance water conservation and flood control in Assam and neighbouring states. The state government has also focused on improving infrastructure to mitigate the impact of seasonal floods and ensure sustainable utilisation of the Brahmaputra’s resources.
The political context surrounding the claim made by Pakistan’s adviser is also relevant. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty followed rising tensions between India and Pakistan, with Islamabad expressing concerns over water security. The treaty has been a pillar of water diplomacy for decades, despite intermittent conflicts and accusations of violations by both parties.
While Pakistan has sought to frame India’s treaty suspension as a precedent that could embolden China to disrupt shared water resources, analysts observe that India’s water policies are carefully managed and reinforced by constitutional and legal frameworks. The complexity of river systems in the region, with multiple riparian states and international borders, requires nuanced, multilateral dialogue rather than alarmist rhetoric.
Sarma’s statement comes at a time when Assam faces significant challenges related to water management, including flooding, erosion, and the effects of climate change. The Brahmaputra’s role as a lifeline for the region remains undisputed, and safeguarding its flow is central to Assam’s socio-economic stability.
The state government has invested in flood control infrastructure, early warning systems, and community-based initiatives to strengthen resilience against natural disasters. These efforts complement national-level strategies to monitor transboundary water flows and address potential upstream impacts.
India’s wider strategic stance involves strengthening river basin management through scientific research and regional cooperation frameworks. The Ministry of Jal Shakti, responsible for water resources, has expanded hydrological monitoring networks and is advancing initiatives under the National Water Mission to optimise water use efficiency.
Environmentalists and water experts highlight the importance of sustainable development along the Brahmaputra basin, balancing hydroelectric projects, agriculture, and biodiversity conservation. Collaborative efforts between India and neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh, are ongoing to address shared challenges related to water availability and quality.
Pakistan’s claims linking China to potential water blockades on the Brahmaputra are seen by some observers as part of a broader geopolitical narrative aimed at influencing international opinion amid regional disputes. The strategic calculus in South Asia is shaped by a complex interplay of territorial, economic, and environmental factors, with water security increasingly central to national interests.
The emphasis by Assam’s Chief Minister on factual clarity seeks to ground the discourse in reality and prevent misinformation from escalating tensions. His remarks reiterate India’s commitment to safeguarding its natural resources and maintaining stability in its northeastern region through effective governance and diplomacy.
China’s role in the Brahmaputra basin remains under close observation, with ongoing dialogues between Indian and Chinese officials focused on transparency regarding upstream projects. The broader regional framework for managing shared rivers is evolving, with calls for greater cooperation and data sharing to prevent conflicts and promote sustainable development.