Hormuz shipping stays subdued as rival claims deepen

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely constrained on Thursday despite a modest rise in commodity vessel movements, underscoring the continuing risks facing one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Nine commodity vessels were tracked transiting the strait during the day, up from five on Wednesday but still below the August daily average of about 12. Most of the vessels used waters closer to Iran, highlighting the limited use of the southern passage despite US assertions that commercial shipping can navigate the waterway safely.

Traffic remains a fraction of levels before the war began on February 28. About 130 to 140 vessels typically crossed Hormuz each day before the conflict disrupted operations. Shipowners, insurers and charterers continue to exercise caution because of military activity, attacks on commercial ships and uncertainty over which routes can be used without interruption.

The subdued flows have become part of a wider dispute between Washington and Tehran over control of the strait. US President Donald Trump has declared that the United States has “total control” of Hormuz. Tehran rejects that position and says vessels cannot pass without Iranian authorisation.

Hossein Taeb, the newly appointed head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary organisation, has said the waterway is under Iran’s control. Iran’s joint military command has also challenged US descriptions of normal navigation, maintaining that Tehran retains the ability to determine passage through the strait.

The competing claims are playing out alongside the US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Washington says its forces are restricting vessels travelling to and from Iran while keeping routes available for ships not connected to Iranian trade.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the Navy can maintain the blockade indefinitely by rotating vessels and personnel through the region. The operation has involved interceptions, diversions and boardings of commercial vessels suspected of attempting to reach Iranian ports.

The confrontation has complicated attempts to secure a lasting agreement following the collapse of an interim ceasefire. Iran has linked a full reopening of Hormuz to demands that include an end to US military pressure, sanctions relief and changes to the blockade. Washington has sought guarantees for commercial passage while maintaining pressure on Iran’s maritime trade.

Security concerns increased further after the UAE accused Iran of attacking two vessels operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while they were passing through Hormuz. No injuries were reported in the two incidents. Tehran has faced repeated accusations of targeting commercial shipping during the conflict, adding to the reluctance of operators to resume normal sailings.

Hormuz remains crucial to global energy supplies. Before the conflict, oil and petroleum liquids moving through the strait exceeded 20 million barrels a day, representing about one-fifth of global consumption. Around a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the waterway, with Qatar accounting for most of those shipments.

The disruption has sharply reduced those volumes. Oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged about 4.9 million barrels a day during the second quarter, down from 21.6 million barrels a day in the final quarter of 2025. Production shut-ins across the region averaged about 5.5 million barrels a day in July as exporters struggled with constrained shipping capacity.

Energy buyers in Asia are responding by widening their supply options. Refiners in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have increased purchases of US crude, while other Asian buyers are seeking cargoes from outside the Gulf. US crude exports to Asia reached about 2.35 million barrels a day in July as the disruption accelerated diversification.

The changing trade pattern has also increased use of alternative export infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has redirected additional crude through its East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, while producers and traders are examining routes designed to reduce dependence on Hormuz.
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