Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is viewed by US intelligence officials as more willing than his late father to pursue a nuclear weapon, raising fears of a major shift in Tehran’s security doctrine amid an expanding confrontation with Washington.
The assessment does not establish that Khamenei has formally ordered the construction of a bomb. Iran is also not known to have restarted large-scale uranium enrichment or an active weapons programme. However, officials examining his leadership record, religious outlook and ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps believe he has fewer ideological objections to nuclear arms than his predecessor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
That distinction could prove decisive. The elder Khamenei had long cited a religious prohibition against weapons of mass destruction and repeatedly maintained that Iran’s nuclear programme was intended for peaceful purposes. Although Western governments questioned Tehran’s intentions, the prohibition remained an important element of Iran’s public nuclear policy.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not clearly reaffirmed that position since becoming supreme leader in March. His silence has increased concern that Tehran may consider nuclear weapons a necessary deterrent after sustained attacks on its leadership, military infrastructure and atomic facilities.
The 56-year-old cleric was selected by the Assembly of Experts after his father was killed in US-Israeli strikes on February 28. His appointment reinforced the influence of the Revolutionary Guard, which backed his elevation and has taken an increasingly prominent role in state security, military planning and political decision-making.
Khamenei was seriously injured in the attack that killed his father. He has made no public appearance since taking office and has communicated through written statements. President Masoud Pezeshkian has said interaction with the supreme leader is increasing, but the absence of photographs, video footage or recorded speeches has fuelled questions about his health and the degree to which he exercises direct control.
The uncertainty has coincided with growing power for military hardliners. Revolutionary Guard commanders and conservative lawmakers have pressed for stronger retaliation against the United States and Israel, while civilian officials have continued to explore diplomatic channels intended to limit the conflict.
A decision to build a nuclear weapon would require agreement across several centres of authority. The supreme leader retains final power over strategic issues, but scientists, military commanders, security agencies and political institutions would all play critical roles in developing and protecting a weapons programme.
US assessments indicate that Iran has not yet taken that step. Tehran nevertheless retains technical knowledge, nuclear material and underground infrastructure that could support a future attempt. Its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity had already reduced the time needed to produce material suitable for a weapon before the latest round of attacks.
Transforming enriched uranium into a deliverable bomb would involve additional challenges. Iran would need to enrich material to weapons-grade levels, fashion a workable explosive device and integrate it with an aircraft or missile. Those stages would be vulnerable to detection, sabotage and military action.
Attention has increasingly focused on a heavily fortified underground complex near Natanz known as Pickaxe Mountain. Built beneath layers of rock, the site is believed to contain halls designed for advanced centrifuges and related equipment. International inspectors have not been granted access, leaving uncertainty over the facility’s purpose and operational status.
US President Donald Trump has threatened further military action if Iran resumes enrichment or moves towards weaponisation. The administration argues that strikes against nuclear sites have delayed Tehran’s programme, although intelligence estimates suggest Iran could recover important capabilities if surviving equipment and material remain intact.
The possibility of a policy change under Mojtaba Khamenei could also reshape calculations across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and other regional powers have warned that an Iranian bomb would alter the balance of power and could encourage rival nuclear programmes. Israel has maintained that it will not allow Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons and considers preventive military action a legitimate option.
Iran insists it has the right to develop civilian nuclear technology and says foreign attacks have strengthened public support for strategic self-reliance. Officials have accused Washington and Israel of using proliferation concerns to justify efforts to weaken the state and force political change.
