Washington has declared its major military campaign against Iran over, but the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in a dangerous standoff that continues to threaten energy flows, commercial shipping and fragile diplomacy across the Gulf.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at the White House that Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli offensive launched on February 28, had met its primary objectives and was now concluded. His remarks marked the clearest official attempt by Washington to draw a line under the large-scale combat phase, though he avoided saying the wider confrontation was finished or that US forces would not resume offensive action if conditions deteriorated.
Rubio said the administration was now shifting to a narrower defensive mission focused on maritime security, safe passage for commercial vessels and pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The distinction is politically significant in Washington, where scrutiny of presidential war powers has intensified as the campaign approached legal limits for military action without congressional authorisation.
The operational change does not mean calm has returned to the Gulf. Tens of thousands of civilian sailors remain trapped on vessels in and around the Persian Gulf, with food, water and fuel constraints adding urgency to diplomatic efforts. At least 10 civilian sailors have died during the crisis, while hundreds of ships have been delayed, rerouted or forced to wait for security guarantees before attempting transit through the narrow waterway.
President Donald Trump has paused Project Freedom, the US-led effort to guide stranded commercial vessels through the strait, citing efforts to finalise a diplomatic understanding with Iran. The pause is intended to give negotiations more room, but the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place, leaving the region in a tense halfway state between ceasefire and confrontation.
Tehran has denied several US allegations about attacks on shipping and Gulf infrastructure, while maintaining that any settlement must address Iran’s security concerns and sanctions. Washington insists that Iran must stop disrupting maritime traffic, accept limits on its nuclear programme and end what US officials describe as coercive control over one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a major share of liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf. Any prolonged disruption would continue to weigh heavily on Asian importers, European energy markets and Gulf producers whose export routes depend on secure passage. Oil and gas markets have already been unsettled by reduced flows, higher insurance costs and uncertainty over whether tankers can move safely.
The conclusion of Operation Epic Fury also leaves unresolved questions about Iran’s nuclear capability. US officials say the campaign achieved its stated military objectives, but Tehran is believed to retain a significant stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That gap between military success claims and the remaining nuclear issue gives diplomacy a narrow but difficult path.
Israel remains a central player in the crisis after participating in the initial offensive, and its security calculations will shape any next phase. The conflict has also affected Lebanon, where Hezbollah-linked tensions have persisted despite ceasefire efforts. Gulf states, particularly the UAE, are watching the maritime and missile threat closely after attacks and interceptions raised concerns about the vulnerability of ports, energy facilities and civilian infrastructure.
For Washington, the immediate challenge is to prevent the declaration of success from being overtaken by events at sea. A single missile strike, mine incident or miscalculation involving naval escorts could rapidly undermine the shift from offensive operations to defensive protection. Shipping companies remain cautious because the legal, financial and security risks of re-entering the strait remain high.