Pakistan’s water stress is set to deepen as India moves towards completing the long-delayed Shahpur Kandi dam, a project that will enable it to utilise surplus flows from the Ravi River that previously entered Pakistan unimpeded.The development comes at a time when Islamabad is already grappling with uncertainty over the Indus Waters Treaty, the 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank that allocates the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej – to India and the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – to Pakistan. Tensions between the two neighbours have sharpened scrutiny of water-sharing arrangements, with officials and analysts in Islamabad warning that even legally permissible projects upstream could have serious downstream implications.
The Shahpur Kandi dam is located near Pathankot on the border of Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Conceived decades ago, the project faced repeated delays due to inter-state disputes between Punjab and the former state of Jammu and Kashmir over water sharing and construction costs. Those issues were resolved after the reorganisation of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, paving the way for work to resume at pace. Authorities have indicated that the dam is nearing completion, allowing India to harness water from the Ravi that would otherwise flow into Pakistan without being used.
Under the Indus Waters Treaty, India has exclusive rights to the waters of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. For years, a significant portion of Ravi’s water flowed across the border because of inadequate storage and diversion infrastructure on the Indian side. Officials in New Delhi have repeatedly stated that projects such as Shahpur Kandi are aimed at ensuring full utilisation of India’s allocated share, not at violating treaty provisions.
Pakistan, however, views the cumulative impact of such projects with concern. Agriculture accounts for nearly a fifth of its gross domestic product and employs a large share of the workforce. The Indus basin irrigation system is the backbone of this sector, supplying water to millions of hectares of farmland. Even marginal reductions in river flows during critical sowing periods can affect crop yields, food security and rural incomes.
Islamabad has also raised broader concerns about climate change and declining water availability. The country ranks among the most water-stressed in the world, with per capita water availability falling sharply over the past decades due to population growth, urbanisation and inefficient usage. Erratic monsoon patterns and glacial melt in the Himalayas add further unpredictability to river flows.
Water experts note that while the Ravi is one of the eastern rivers allocated to India, it remains hydrologically linked to the broader Indus basin. Any upstream storage or diversion can alter seasonal flow patterns downstream. “The issue is not only annual volume but timing,” said a former member of Pakistan’s Indus Waters Commission, referring to the body established under the treaty to manage disputes. “If water is withheld during low-flow months and released later, it can disrupt cropping cycles.”
Indian officials counter that the Shahpur Kandi project is a run-of-the-river storage and power generation facility designed within treaty parameters. The dam is expected to provide irrigation benefits to parts of Punjab and generate hydroelectric power, contributing to regional energy supply. They argue that India has historically underutilised its share of eastern river waters, allowing billions of cubic metres to flow into Pakistan each year.
Legal scholars emphasise that the treaty permits India to construct storage and hydropower projects on the eastern rivers without Pakistan’s consent, provided they meet technical specifications. Over the decades, disputes have arisen primarily over projects on the western rivers, such as the Kishanganga and Baglihar dams, which went through arbitration and neutral expert processes.
Yet water diplomacy between the two countries has grown more fraught. Pakistan has expressed alarm over statements from some quarters in India suggesting a reassessment of treaty commitments amid broader political tensions. While the treaty has survived wars and prolonged hostility, the political climate has injected fresh uncertainty into an agreement long cited as a rare example of sustained cooperation.
Economists warn that further strain on water supplies could exacerbate Pakistan’s economic challenges. The country is navigating fiscal pressures, external debt obligations and inflation. Agriculture remains a key source of export earnings through products such as rice and textiles derived from cotton. Reduced irrigation availability could ripple through these sectors, affecting growth and employment.