The Bharatiya Janata Party appears on course to secure a third straight term in Assam, with the National Democratic Alliance projected to deliver a decisive majority in the 2026 Assembly elections, according to findings from a Tracker Poll by People’s Pulse Research Organization. The survey points to a consolidation of support behind the ruling alliance, driven by organisational depth, leadership continuity and welfare delivery, even as opposition formations attempt to regain lost ground.The poll suggests the BJP-led NDA is positioned well beyond the halfway mark in the 126-member Assembly, indicating voter confidence in the government headed by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The projections underline the party’s sustained dominance since its first victory in 2016, when it ended long-standing Congress rule, and its subsequent return to power in 2021 with an expanded mandate. Analysts tracking voting behaviour in Assam note that consecutive wins have helped the BJP build a durable grassroots network that now extends across both urban centres and rural belts.
Bharatiya Janata Party has, over the past decade, reshaped Assam’s political landscape by combining a strong central leadership narrative with region-specific messaging. The Tracker Poll indicates that governance themes such as infrastructure expansion, improved connectivity, flood management measures and targeted welfare schemes continue to resonate with large sections of the electorate. Respondents cited road projects, healthcare facilities and education initiatives as visible changes influencing voting intent.
The NDA’s projected strength also reflects cohesion among its partners. The alliance has largely avoided public rifts in Assam, allowing it to present a unified front. Smaller regional parties within the coalition have retained influence in specific pockets, complementing the BJP’s broader reach. This contrasts with the opposition camp, where coordination challenges and leadership questions persist.
The Congress-led opposition, which once dominated Assam politics, faces an uphill task. While it retains pockets of loyalty, particularly in minority-dominated and tea garden areas, the poll indicates that it has struggled to convert discontent over local issues into a statewide narrative capable of challenging the incumbent. Voters surveyed pointed to the absence of a clear chief ministerial face and inconsistent messaging as factors limiting the opposition’s appeal.
People’s Pulse Research Organization, which conducted the Tracker Poll through a combination of face-to-face interviews and telephonic outreach across multiple constituencies, reported that voting preferences show relative stability compared with earlier election cycles. Political scientists interpret this as a sign of entrenched voting patterns, where shifts are more likely to occur at the margins rather than through sweeping realignments.
National Democratic Alliance has benefited from the broader national positioning of the BJP, with respondents linking state governance to stability at the Centre. The alignment between state and central governments was frequently cited as an advantage, particularly in securing funds and fast-tracking projects. This perception has strengthened the NDA’s claim that continuity would accelerate development.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s leadership emerges as a key factor in the poll’s findings. His high public visibility, assertive administrative style and frequent engagement with local issues have kept him at the forefront of the political narrative. Supporters credit him with decisive governance, while critics argue that his approach leaves limited space for dissent. Even so, the survey indicates that his personal approval ratings remain robust across multiple demographics.
Opposition leaders have sought to counter this by highlighting concerns over unemployment, price pressures and social cohesion. The poll shows these issues do register with voters, particularly younger respondents, but not at levels sufficient to overturn the incumbent advantage. Analysts suggest that without a cohesive alternative programme and leadership, such concerns may not translate into significant seat gains.
Assam’s complex social fabric, marked by ethnic diversity and migration debates, continues to shape electoral outcomes. The BJP’s stance on citizenship and identity issues has found support among sections of the electorate, while also drawing criticism from others. The Tracker Poll indicates that, on balance, the party’s messaging has retained more supporters than it has alienated, particularly when coupled with welfare delivery.