Bahujan Samaj Party, once a decisive player in Uttar Pradesh and a regular presence in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, stands on the edge of parliamentary extinction after successive electoral reverses. Barring an unexpected revival, the party is set to have no representation in Parliament for the first time in more than three decades, a slide that also threatens its recognition as a national party.The immediate trigger is the outcome of the 2024 general election, where the BSP failed to secure a single Lok Sabha seat. That followed a steep decline in its vote share, especially in its traditional strongholds across Uttar Pradesh, where the party once governed the state with an absolute majority. The absence of MPs compounds the blow delivered in state elections over the past decade, during which the BSP has steadily ceded ground to rivals drawing from overlapping social coalitions.
Founded by Kanshi Ram and later led to national prominence by Mayawati, the BSP was built on the political mobilisation of Dalits, particularly the Jatav community, combined at times with support from other backward classes and sections of upper castes. Its social engineering strategy delivered historic victories, including the 2007 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, when the party secured a clear mandate. That model has since frayed, challenged by the rise of identity-based competitors and a polarised political environment.
Electoral data from recent cycles show the party’s vote base splintering. Sections of Dalit voters have shifted towards the Bharatiya Janata Party, attracted by welfare schemes and a narrative of political inclusion, while others have gravitated towards the Samajwadi Party in constituencies where tactical voting has been framed as the most effective way to defeat the BJP. The BSP’s decision to contest alone in multiple elections, resisting alliances that might have ensured seat-sharing victories, has further narrowed its path to Parliament.
Organisational fatigue has also become a recurring theme in assessments by political observers. The BSP’s cadre-driven structure, once regarded as disciplined and resilient, has thinned, with local leaders defecting or becoming inactive. Grassroots mobilisation, central to Kanshi Ram’s original vision, has struggled to adapt to a political landscape increasingly shaped by social media campaigns, booth-level micro-management and constant public outreach.
The leadership style of Mayawati has drawn scrutiny as well. Her tight control over candidate selection and messaging has ensured ideological consistency but limited the emergence of second-rung leaders capable of energising the organisation. Critics within the Dalit movement argue that the party has appeared reactive rather than agenda-setting, particularly on economic distress, unemployment and social justice concerns that resonate across caste lines.
The implications extend beyond parliamentary arithmetic. Under Election Commission rules, a party’s national status depends on vote share and representation across states. Continued underperformance risks downgrading the BSP to a state or regional party, a symbolic and practical setback that could affect funding, visibility and bargaining power in future alliances. Such a loss would mark a sharp contrast to the party’s earlier role as a kingmaker in coalition governments at the Centre.
There are, however, factors that complicate any obituary. The BSP retains a significant vote share in Uttar Pradesh, even when it fails to convert votes into seats under the first-past-the-post system. Its support base, while eroded, remains among the most cohesive in the state’s fragmented politics. Political strategists note that shifts of even a few percentage points, or a targeted alliance, could restore parliamentary presence.
Signals from within the party suggest an awareness of the crisis. Mayawati has indicated the need for organisational rebuilding and renewed outreach to younger voters. The challenge lies in translating such intent into visible action, whether through leadership renewal, sharper issue-based campaigns or pragmatic electoral tie-ups. Past reluctance to compromise has preserved the BSP’s independent identity but at a growing electoral cost.