Clashes that began around university campuses have since spread into broader urban centres, targeting symbols of state authority and drawing in groups that have remained largely dormant over the past decade. Security agencies note that protests escalated with unusual speed, accompanied by coordinated messaging on social media platforms and encrypted channels that framed the unrest as a struggle over national identity rather than a single act of grievance. This narrative shift has alarmed regional observers, particularly given Bangladesh’s historically pragmatic engagement with New Delhi on trade, security and connectivity.
Sharif Osman Hadi, whose activism had focused on governance reform and student rights, became a rallying figure almost immediately after his death. Investigators say the manner in which his image and statements were amplified suggested prior preparation, with slogans and digital material circulating within hours. Intelligence officials describe this as a textbook use of “controlled chaos”, a strategy in which limited but sustained disorder is used to pressure political actors, reshape public discourse and marginalise moderate voices.
The interim administration has struggled to contain the fallout. Curfews and internet restrictions have been imposed in parts of Dhaka and other major cities, yet enforcement has been uneven. Senior officials privately concede that elements within the security apparatus are wary of heavy-handed action, fearing it could further legitimise the protest narrative. This hesitancy has created space for hardline groups to reassert themselves, particularly factions that had lost influence after earlier crackdowns on extremism.
Analysts tracking the unrest say the messaging emerging from these groups marks a sharp departure from Bangladesh’s established foreign policy posture. Statements circulating online and at protest sites increasingly frame cooperation with New Delhi as a betrayal of sovereignty, reviving themes that had largely receded from mainstream politics. Such rhetoric, intelligence assessments suggest, is not incidental but central to the current mobilisation, aimed at repositioning Bangladesh within a more confrontational regional framework.
Economic anxieties have added combustible material to the situation. Bangladesh’s export-driven economy has been under pressure from currency volatility, rising import costs and slowing global demand for garments. Student and labour groups have long expressed frustration over employment prospects and wage stagnation. Intelligence officials believe these grievances are being deliberately fused with ideological messaging to broaden the appeal of the unrest and draw in constituencies beyond campuses.
Regional diplomats watching events unfold say the situation poses complex challenges. New Delhi has maintained public restraint, avoiding direct commentary on the protests while reinforcing border security and quietly reviewing contingency plans. Officials familiar with bilateral ties say the concern is not an immediate rupture but a gradual erosion of trust built over years of cooperation on counter-terrorism, water sharing and transit agreements. Any sustained shift towards a hardline stance in Dhaka would complicate these arrangements and alter regional dynamics.
Within Bangladesh, political parties are recalibrating. Established opposition figures have offered guarded support to calls for accountability over Hadi’s death while distancing themselves from violence. The ruling coalition, weakened by the interim setup, faces accusations of losing control of the streets. Civil society leaders warn that the space for dialogue is narrowing, with polarisation accelerating as moderate narratives are drowned out by more extreme voices.