The trigger for the fallout lies in the bloc’s dismal performance in the Bihar Assembly election, where the ruling National Democratic Alliance secured 202 of 243 seats — a staggering margin that stunned opposition ranks. The INDIA alliance’s major partners — including the Indian National Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal — were left nursing recovery from a collective reach of barely more than 30 seats.
What began as hushed whispers of dissent has now evolved into overt criticism. A senior Congress office-bearer warned that “nothing has changed since it was formed” with regard to the INDIA bloc’s national coordination, even as some regional parties openly weigh exit options. The RJD, meanwhile, has been accused by its Congress partner of coercing its dominance in seat-sharing discussions — an allegation the RJD denies.
Among the most consequential tremors is the pressure on the Congress for internal discipline. The party’s disciplinary committee has issued show-cause notices to 43 leaders over alleged anti-party activity during the Bihar poll campaign. Analysts say that this reflects the deeper malaise afflicting the bloc: absence of a unified leadership or coherent campaign narrative. The Samajwadi Party, one of the alliance’s key regional members, has proposed that its leader Akhilesh Yadav take command of the INDIA alliance, pointing to the Congress’s electoral decline.
Alliance insiders point to several underlying faults. Foremost is the absence of a clear politico-electoral face for the bloc. Months before the election, the RJD-Congress dynamics were already strained, with the former insisting on contesting not less than 140 out of 243 seats and the latter willing to accept a subordinate role in Bihar. The lack of consensus over seat allocation and CM-face led to fragmented messaging and operational confusion at the grassroots.
Compounding the strategic drift, two regional members — the Council of Indian Munitions? and others — began publicly expressing that their prospects would be stronger outside the bloc. That in turn triggered speculation about possible defections or separate electoral strategies. Senior party figures in the bloc are reported to be considering whether to “realign forces” state-by-state rather than operate as a national umbrella.
Political commentators argue that the Bihar rout has exposed not just a failure of campaign tactics but the very raison d’être of the INDIA bloc. The coalition was formed in 2023 with a focus on countering the NDA’s majoritarian dominance, but lacked a singular ideological anchor or economic agenda beyond opposition. In the absence of a shared public narrative beyond competing with the BJP-led coalition, the alliance’s credibility has taken a hit.
Within Congress, the mood is one of forced resilience. Party general secretary K C Venugopal reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment and vowed to “double efforts” to strengthen coordination. He insisted that state-level disagreements would not undermine national objectives. Yet, several state units remain unconvinced and tensions between national and regional cadres continue to simmer.
For regional partners the fallout is pressing. The RJD has fallen to 25 seats in Bihar — a major decline from its 75 seats in the 2020 Assembly polls. Under its leader Tejashwi Prasad Yadav the party is now facing not only a leadership challenge but questions about its oscillating alliances and strategy. Meanwhile the AICC’s show-cause notices suggest Congress state leaders are already under scrutiny for their tactical missteps across multiple states, not just Bihar.
The path ahead for the INDIA bloc is uncertain. As one senior strategist observed: “This is more than a bad election—it’s a credibility test.” With state elections slated in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and elsewhere, the alliance must decide whether to rebuild from the foundational levels or allow autonomous partners to chart independent courses. If coordination fails and partners drift away, the national opposition’s future might hinge on new alignments entirely.