The SP reacted swiftly to the Bihar results, with senior leaders voicing doubts about the Congress’ readiness to play a front-line role in the state. One senior SP figure told media that the Bihar tally had “undermined confidence” in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance—commonly known as the INDIA bloc—within Uttar Pradesh. Analysts say the Bihar result serves as a crucial litmus test for the alliance’s prospects in the Hindi-heartland ahead of 2027.
Bihar’s verdict itself was a sweeping win for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance, which secured 202 of 243 seats, leaving the Congress-led Mahagathbandhan severely muted. The Congress previously hovered in double-digits in Bihar; its plunge to six seats underscores its erosion in a state once considered fertile ground for the party. As one veteran Congress leader admitted, the result—one of the party’s worst in the region in decades—demands urgent introspection.
The implications for Uttar Pradesh are marked. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw an alliance of SP and Congress outperform the BJP in several areas of the state, generating hopes of momentum for 2027. But the Bihar outcome now forces the SP to weigh whether continuing with the Congress as a partner is strategically sound. Some voices within the SP argue that a stronger caste-based alliance, centred on backward, Dalit and minority groups, could bypass the Congress entirely. The debate reflects growing impatience with what one SP insider called the “dead weight” of the Congress in joint electoral ventures.
For the Congress, the Bihar setback exposes deeper structural weaknesses. Once a dominant force in the state, the party has seen its vote share and seat count gradually slip over successive elections. Analysts point to organisational fatigue, absence of a resonant narrative and shrinking cadre strength as underlying issues. In Bihar 2025, the party fielded fewer seats than in 2020 and returned one of its worst outputs in 70 years. The leadership now faces pressure to overhaul the party’s grassroots machinery and leadership strategy.
Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA has capitalised on the shift. Its vote share in Bihar rose to around 46.6 per cent, up nearly ten percentage points from 2020, while the opposition’s share remained static at around 37.9 per cent. The contrasting trajectories suggest that the ruling coalition’s appeal has deepened even as the opposition remains stuck. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP appears to be reinforcing its dominance, leaving the SP-Congress bloc scrambling to recalibrate. The defence minister declared that the Bihar outcome “will be replicated” in Uttar Pradesh, signalling the ruling alliance’s confidence.