The survey places the BJP ahead in public perception of governance, with 35 per cent of respondents saying it is the party best suited to deliver good governance in Bihar, followed by JD at 18 per cent and RJD at 13 per cent. In a hypothetical contest for the chief minister’s post, Nitish Kumar of JD dominates as first preference with 42 per cent support. Tejashwi Yadav of RJD trails with 15 per cent, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party draws 9 per cent. Other names such as Chirag Paswan and Samrat Choudhary receive smaller shares, and 17 per cent of respondents say they remain undecided.
The poll also highlights voter concerns: unemployment and corruption stand out as the most pressing issues ahead of the polls, followed by inflation and challenges in the education system. The state’s weak schooling infrastructure emerges as a recurring criticism in respondent feedback. The survey notes that public confidence in governance is fragile, and delivery failures could erode the NDA’s standing, despite the strong “Modi factor.”
These findings intersect with growing friction over Bihar’s Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. Opposition parties have accused the Election Commission of purging legitimate voters during the roll-cleaning exercise. A legal challenge by the Association for Democratic Reforms questions whether the SIR process is arbitrary and disenfranchises vulnerable populations. The case is currently under consideration in the Supreme Court.
The electoral rolls, as finalised following SIR, show a drop in the number of voters. Over 60-65 lakh names were removed from the rolls, attributed by the Election Commission to death, migration, duplication, and other standard criteria. The opposition contends the scale and timing of the deletions suggest political manipulation, particularly in regions where margins are tight.
The Commission, in turn, has defended the revision as necessary to ensure accurate voter lists. Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar has emphasised legal safeguards built into the SIR process and the opportunity for citizens to file claims or objections. He also noted the commission’s commitment to holding transparent and credible elections.
Political mobilisation is already underway. BJP president JP Nadda expressed confidence that the NDA would secure a decisive victory, framing the contest as a referendum on governance and development. Meanwhile, leaders of the Mahagathbandhan, including Tejashwi Yadav, are stressing the need for a change in leadership, portraying the elections as a choice between the status quo and fresh direction.
Observers point out that Modi’s sway appears to extend beyond traditional BJP constituencies, with crosscutting appeal among younger, aspirational voters. However, the poll suggests that the “Modi effect” is conditional: its influence depends on local candidates, coalition dynamics, and ground-level delivery. In several key districts, caste alignments, development deficits, and identity politics remain potent forces.
Given the two-phase polling schedule, political parties are expected to calibrate messaging and alliances strategically. For the NDA, the challenge lies in capitalising on the prime ministerial influence while ensuring coherence across constituent parties. For the opposition, the task is to neutralise the “Modi wave” by framing local discontent as the principal issue and mobilising contesting voters whose names might have been deleted.