Stubb emphasised that if Western policy lacks cohesion and dignity in engaging with nations like India, the West stands to “lose this game” in the global competition for influence. Speaking alongside his Lithuanian counterpart, Gitanas Nausėda, Stubb highlighted the Shangh ai Cooperation Organisation’s expanding appeal as an alternative platform for countries seeking more meaningful engagement.
He further reflected on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, attended by Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. He described the summit as a potent signal of the shifting geopolitical landscape and a reminder of the stakes the Global West faces in preserving the post–Cold War order.
Stubb criticised the narrative promoted by China and Russia, which frames multipolarity as a peace-building model. He countered that genuine global cooperation is best advanced through multilateralism and robust institutions—not a fragmented power balance.
The warning comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions between the United States and India, following the imposition of sweeping 50 per cent tariffs by the US. Washington claims these measures are a response to India’s energy dealings with Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, though New Delhi has dismissed the allegations as groundless.
Stubb’s admonition carries extra weight given his unusual personal rapport with President Trump. Earlier in the year, the two bond ed over a marathon seven-hour round of golf at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. Analysts suggest that few European figures from smaller states enjoy comparable access or influence.
This appeal from a NATO-aligned leader signals growing concern over Western strategy. Stubb’s message resonates with analysts who warn that policies perceived as confrontational or dismissive—and especially those involving punitive economic measures—may push key partners like India towards alternative power centres.
The timing amplifies the cautionary note. The broader geopolitical context—marked by the SCO’s growing traction, deepening fractures within the Western alliance, and a reevaluation of global alignments—underscores the window for recalibrating Western foreign policy may be narrowing rapidly.
Stubb’s call for a more dignified, cooperative approach signals a departure from transactional diplomacy. His message urges Western governments to recognise the Global South not as arenas for leverage, but as equal partners whose alignment may determine the shape of international order.
Despite the weight of his personal connections and political stature, it remains unclear whether his message will resonate with policy-makers in Washington or elsewhere in the Western coalition.