The ADB is reportedly in advanced discussions to lead financing for the project and may coordinate a consortium of lenders, with plans to launch competitive bidding for engineering firms to execute the upgrade. The lender has already approved $410 million for the nearby Reko Diq copper-gold mine and pledged further support during the ADB president’s forthcoming visit to Islamabad.
For Pakistan, the rail upgrade is more than a transport project. The revived corridor is critical to evacuating copper ore from Reko Diq, expected to start producing in 2028. Failure to modernise the line would risk bottlenecks in moving output from the mine to ports, potentially undermining one of the country’s most significant foreign investments.
China’s decision to pivot away from the ML-1 upgrade reflects broader financial recalibrations. After years of stalled negotiations and Pakistan’s mounting debt—particularly towards Chinese entities—Beijing appears increasingly cautious, even as both countries publicly reaffirm their "ironclad" strategic partnership.
This shift also signals Pakistan’s growing receptiveness to multilateral funding, hinting at a more diversified economic strategy. While Islamabad continues to pursue CPEC investments—signing $8.5 billion in new Chinese agreements across agriculture, renewables, health and energy sectors—its turn to the ADB for its once-iconic rail project underscores mounting pragmatism amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
Chinese project withdrawals and ADB’s engagement invite scrutiny of long-term debt sustainability. Pakistan’s external liabilities exceed $77 billion, including substantial obligations to China. The Reko Diq project has drawn ADB’s first mining loan in over 40 years—$300 million plus $110 million in credit guarantees—highlighting the lender’s calculated return to Pakistan’s critical minerals sector.
Within Pakistan, upgrading the Karachi–Rohri rail line promises tangible benefits: faster transit speeds, higher freight capacity and improved corridor reliability. With ML-1 handling around 75 percent of freight and passenger traffic nationwide, its rehabilitation would deliver substantial economic dividends.
However, the Kabul–Rohri upgrade carries risks. The route traverses restive areas of Balochistan, where insurgent activity has threatened infrastructure and personnel. Security concerns, noted by both Chinese and Pakistani officials, remain a key consideration in planning the upgrade.