The agreement was confirmed by both the White House and Pakistani officials, who hailed the pact as a structural deal encompassing energy, trade, IT, critical minerals and mining. Pakistan's finance minister described the outcome as reducing reciprocal tariffs for Pakistani exports to the US. Trump shared the announcement via social media, noting the ongoing process of choosing the company to lead exploitation of Pakistan’s oil resources.
Current estimates place Pakistan’s proven oil reserves at roughly 353 million barrels—equivalent to a fraction of global supply and covering under two years of domestic consumption at existing output rates of around 88,000 barrels a day. That leaves the country heavily dependent on imports for nearly 85% of its oil needs. What Trump termed “massive reserves” appears to be based on unverified offshore seismic findings in the Indus Basin. These preliminary surveys over several years suggest the potential presence of significant hydrocarbon formations, but no exploratory drilling has yet confirmed recoverable reserves.
Oil and gas experts, including former Pakistani regulator Muhammad Arif, caution that such formations should not yet be classified as reserves. Without successful drilling, commercial viability and full development plans, these remain speculative resources—not proven reserves under industry standards.
Pakistan’s legacy production fields—such as the Toot oilfield and regions in Lower Sindh—contribute to its existing supply, but have never achieved self‑sufficiency. The state-run Oil & Gas Development Company Limited, which operates dozens of fields, aims to expand exploration with international partners, though the existing contribution remains modest.
The policy move comes amid global debates on trade strategy. Since April, Pakistan has explored importing US crude to offset trade deficits, roughly $3 bn, with proposals under consideration to purchase around 137,000 barrels per day of US crude to diversify supply and qualify for reduced reciprocal tariffs.
The timing of the energy deal with Pakistan—falling just hours after announcement of punitive measures on India—draws attention to Washington’s recalibration in South Asia. Analysts view this as feint and leverage: boosting US ties with Islamabad while pressing Indian trade partners, leveraging energy as a tool in diplomatic and economic realignment.
Trump’s mention of the possibility that Pakistan may someday sell oil to India has become a central talking point. It raises questions about the feasibility of exports between historically adversarial neighbours and the infrastructure required—pipelines, refineries, shipping—which does not yet exist. Experts note that exporting would require long lead times, regulatory negotiation, and market development before becoming realistic.
Pakistan’s ambition to develop an oil refinery and processing hub in Gwadar, dubbed the proposed "Oil City," is underway with long-term Saudi and Chinese investment plans estimated at $10‑12 bn. These projects envision refinery capacities of up to 300,000 barrels per day within the next five to six years, though actual delivery remains years off.
Though the White House did not specify the identity of the American oil company that will participate, it is expected that major US energy firms may be candidates. OGDC and other Pakistani state entities will likely play central roles once the partnership is formalised.
Energy analysts urge caution, noting that Pakistan’s sedimentary basins hold potential yet require extensive validation through exploratory drilling and investment. Without that, calling the resources “massive” belongs in aspiration, not proven fact. Geopolitical context and commercial stakes may drive bold rhetoric, but the actual oil‑export proposition to India remains speculative at this stage.