Siddaramaiah has unequivocally ruled out any plan for a mid‑term rotation of the Chief Minister’s office, stating there is “no vacancy” and reaffirming his commitment to serve the full five‑year term. He emphasised that neither he nor the party high command have discussed a power‑sharing deal. On the same lines, Shivakumar also refused to comment on leadership rumours, yet reports suggest he is quietly consolidating support among MLAs.
Political observers note that the issue gains urgency this November, when the assembly crosses the 2.5‑year mark—the customary halfway point often associated with leadership reshuffles. This balance between unwritten understandings and political reality has become a flashpoint within the state unit.
BJP state president B Y Vijayendra has accused Shivakumar of securing backing from “100 Congress MLAs”, asserting that the momentum for change exists within the party. While Congress ministers insist Siddaramaiah enjoys popular support, the BJP’s claims underscore growing internal dissent.
Attempts by Congress central leadership to address the turmoil include dispatching general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala to Bengaluru to conduct one‑on‑one meetings with MLAs. Surjewala has publicly stated that the engagement focuses on government performance rather than leadership change, and reiterated that Siddaramaiah will remain Chief Minister.
Both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar travelled separately to New Delhi to request meetings with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, a development interpreted as a strategic bid to influence the party high command. However, neither secured a meeting with Gandhi, apparently due to his focus on campaigning in Bihar—a factor that political analysts believe reflects attempts to avoid igniting further media speculation. They did meet party president Mallikarjun Kharge to review broader issues facing the state.
Opposition leader B Sriramulu claimed that the 2.5‑year arrangement is being upended, suggesting that Siddaramaiah is using his influence to prevent Shivakumar’s ascension by promoting a candidate from SC/ST communities. He further alleged that internal grants distribution has been biased and that factional battles are impeding development—a critique signalling a further wedge in the ruling party’s unity.
Political analysts caution that while no formal agreement for leadership change exists, the simmering tensions may destabilise policymaking and governance. Previous controversies—such as the Valmiki Corporation financial irregularities and law-and-order concerns in regions like Shivamogga—have amplified scrutiny on the government. The federal party now confronts the dual challenge of managing internal rivalry while demonstrating administrative resilience ahead of its next electoral test in May 2028.
Assembly sources suggest Siddaramaiah’s camp seeks to remove Shivakumar as Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president ahead of local polls, a manoeuvre intended to marginalise his influence—though this has generated its own backlash.
Former University of Mysore political science professor Chambi Puranik comments that Shivakumar’s ambitions are “less about public service and more about political relevance”, while Siddaramaiah is determined to fulfil his full term. It remains unclear whether the high command will enforce a leadership transfer this November or allow Siddaramaiah to continue uninterrupted.
At stake is not only the internal equilibrium of Karnataka’s government but also the broader perception of Congress’s cohesion in southern India, where it stands as the only major non-BJP stronghold. The unfolding contest between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar serves as a barometer of the party’s ability to balance leadership ambitions with strategic stability.