The Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) between Canada and the U.S., which prevents most asylum seekers entering from the U.S. from claiming refugee status in Canada, has been modified in recent years to close certain loopholes. Despite this, experts say a sharp uptick in migrants attempting to cross the border irregularly may still arise if Trump’s policies mirror his initial term, during which restrictive immigration measures were heavily enforced. The STCA, which obliges asylum seekers to make claims in the first safe country they enter, was adjusted to reduce irregular crossings at unofficial entry points like Roxham Road, a well-known crossing in Quebec. The agreement does not, however, completely restrict refugee claims from those who argue that U.S. policies are unjust, potentially leaving room for legal challenges and appeals by asylum seekers.
Experts warn that Trump’s stance on immigration, which included a “zero tolerance” policy leading to family separations and increased deportations, could exacerbate the issue for Canada. Irene Bloemraad, a scholar at the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Migration Studies, suggested that if Trump’s policies are reinstated, some individuals may argue that the U.S. no longer offers a safe environment for certain groups. This legal basis could enable more refugees to challenge the STCA, prompting Canada to review applications from individuals facing strict U.S. policies, particularly if they seek entry via irregular routes.
Another concern centers on the impact on housing, social services, and border security in Canada’s major cities, especially Vancouver and Toronto, which have previously absorbed high numbers of migrants. Canada’s housing market and shelter systems, already strained by high demand, could face further pressure from an influx of migrants seeking stable accommodation. These economic and logistical challenges underscore Canada’s need to reassess its migration response strategies, according to industry analysts and migration experts.