In Maharashtra, projections show the NDA likely capturing 30 of the contested seats, with the INDIA bloc securing 18. This marks a reduction of 11 seats for the BJP-led alliance compared to prior performances, attributed to a fragmented vote share between factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP. The BJP is expected to dominate within the alliance, with estimates of winning 21 seats, while the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena may add nine. Conversely, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena faction is anticipated to secure 10 seats, with NCP and Congress receiving a modest four seats each. Analysts highlight how internal transfers of minority votes among opposition factions have impacted the INDIA bloc's cohesion, enabling Uddhav Thackeray's gains.
The Shiv Sena's split into two factions has further reshaped Maharashtra's political landscape. Combined, both wings are predicted to achieve a 33% vote share, an increase from their unified 24% share in 2019. This trend underscores the fragmentation of traditional loyalties in the state, making it harder to declare a definitive beneficiary between the rival Sena groups.
Jharkhand’s polls also suggest a robust showing for the NDA, with predictions of nine seats against the INDIA bloc's five. The BJP’s alliance with regional forces appears instrumental in countering opposition consolidation under Hemant Soren's leadership. Factors such as anti-incumbency sentiments and tribal solidarity with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress have given the INDIA bloc a projected nine-percentage-point gain in vote share, reflecting their significant outreach efforts among marginalized communities.
Exit polls also underscore how national narratives, often dominated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership, tend to wane in state-specific contexts. Localized factors, such as grassroots mobilizations, caste equations, and regional issues, heavily influence the outcomes. Observers note that while the BJP retains its status as a formidable electoral machine, the INDIA bloc’s incremental gains signal a reconfiguration of the opposition's strategies.