The vacant assembly seats are scattered across Uttar Pradesh, a political battleground where alliances can swing the vote. Notably, these vacancies arose after several Samajwadi Party leaders, including its chief Akhilesh Yadav, were elected to the Lok Sabha. Nine seats held by SP members and another disqualified seat are up for grabs, and the by-elections are seen as a litmus test for future alliances, particularly in the run-up to the 2024 general elections.
Despite early talks of cooperation, SP has sought to balance its interests in Uttar Pradesh with expansion ambitions elsewhere. Insiders suggest that SP is offering Congress two seats in the bypolls but expects Congress to reciprocate by conceding seats to SP in upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. The seat-sharing formula, described as a 'give-and-take' arrangement, underscores the delicate nature of alliances in India’s regional politics.
This disagreement has placed the Congress in a difficult position. The party, which has struggled to maintain a strong foothold in Uttar Pradesh, sees the bypolls as an opportunity to regain relevance in the state’s political scene. However, SP’s refusal to yield a third seat has frustrated Congress leaders, some of whom argue that the party deserves more given its standing in other states where it could influence outcomes beneficial to SP.
Congress, traditionally a dominant force in India’s national politics, has been increasingly reliant on alliances with regional parties like SP in states where it lacks the organizational strength to compete independently. The growing divergence between the two parties on how to split the seats is seen as a test of their alliance. For SP, maintaining control over its base in Uttar Pradesh is crucial, while it also eyes opportunities in other states where Congress still wields significant influence.
SP’s strategy in the bypolls has drawn attention due to the vacant seats it previously held, including high-profile constituencies like Karhal and Mirzapur. Should Congress and SP fail to reach an agreement, the door could open for rival Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates to capitalize on a divided opposition. While the BJP has yet to announce its candidates, it remains a formidable player in the state, having won major elections across Uttar Pradesh in the past decade.
Discussions between the two parties are ongoing, with Congress leaders pushing hard to secure the additional seat. In response, SP has pointed to its contributions in other electoral arenas, where it has supported Congress in states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The balancing act between local and national political priorities makes this negotiation particularly sensitive.
As the election calendar inches closer, both parties face internal pressures. SP is keen to avoid appearing too generous to Congress, especially given the stakes in Uttar Pradesh, where its grassroots network has traditionally been strong. On the other hand, Congress leaders are wary of accepting what they perceive as a subpar deal, which could damage their credibility in future negotiations and alliances across India.
Political observers suggest that the seat-sharing arrangement between Congress and SP could be a bellwether for opposition unity in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections. With the bypolls seen as a precursor to larger electoral battles, the outcome of these negotiations could have far-reaching implications. Should the Congress-SP alliance falter, it may set a precedent for other opposition parties to rethink their partnerships, potentially leading to fragmented electoral strategies.
The bypolls will serve as a critical measure of each party’s strength, particularly as opposition parties aim to build momentum against the BJP, which remains the dominant political force nationally. While both Congress and SP have made strides against the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh, their inability to finalize a seat-sharing deal underscores the complexities of coalition politics.