Addressing reporters, Abdullah said the BJP’s hope for victory in any of the four seats set for October 24 lies not in genuine support but in transactional politics. “If they win more than what their numbers allow, then what people are saying about the BJP’s role in Bihar elections will be vindicated,” he warned.
Abdullah further charged that no single MLA beyond the BJP’s 28 has indicated support for the party in the past year, and that any abstention or vote for the BJP would expose them as “friends” of the party, rather than genuine opposition. He insisted that the election would serve as a test to distinguish allegiance in Jammu and Kashmir.
The National Conference, leading the ruling coalition in the Assembly, has responded by deciding to contest all four Rajya Sabha seats. This decision follows the decision of its ally, Congress, to abstain from the contest for the fourth seat, alleging that the seat offered by NC was not “safe.” Congress leaders claimed the party was sidelined in allotment of safer seats, leading to its withdrawal from that contest.
Under the current arithmetic, the NC holds 41 MLAs and is supported by additional independents and allied legislators. BJP’s announced candidates number three for the Rajya Sabha seats, though analysts see a steep uphill battle given the vote arithmetic. Abdullah reiterated there has been no last-minute change or manipulation in nomination strategy, saying that one seat was set aside for Congress but it chose not to field a candidate.
Analysts note that the BJP’s pathway is narrow: to force a win, it would need to peel away opposition MLAs or rely on non-policy coercion. The BJP has defended its stance, with party leaders stating their nominees are senior leaders expected to win on merit and party strength.
Observers say the contest could expose the limits of numbers politics in Jammu and Kashmir: with no overt support for the BJP beyond its core group, the outcome may rest on defections, pressure tactics, or abstentions. Some analysts stress that Abdullah’s public call to expose any MLA who votes BJP or abstains is itself a political gambit to deter defections.