Paswan is demanding 40 of Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats, leveraging the LJP’s clean sweep in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls—five contests, five wins—to assert bargaining strength. The BJP, wary of splintering, is countering with a substantially lower offer of 25 seats. The LJP has neither accepted nor formally rejected that figure, signalling flexibility but also firmness in its posture.
BJP strategists have moved to contain the drift: Dharmendra Pradhan and other senior leaders held a seat-sharing meeting at Paswan’s Delhi residence, pressing to preserve the unity of the NDA bloc. Behind closed doors, party sources suggest the BJP is using timing to manage defections and mitigate internal strain during the seat allocation process.
In parallel, Kishor is preparing to enter electoral combat through his film-studio-styled Jan Suraaj Party. His entry into the fray is being treated as a potential spoiler to both sides of the electoral divide. Analysts warn that even if the JSP does not win many seats outright, its ability to siphon votes from traditional vote banks could cripple both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
Political watchers believe Paswan and Kishor’s strategic interests are converging. The LJP seeks legitimacy in the state theatre beyond Lok Sabha presence, while Kishor aims to transform his campaign architecture into real electoral clout. An alliance would allow Paswan leverage within any new state government, and provide Kishor a partner with an existing political structure and cadre.
The BJP, perhaps anticipating the drift, has categorically denied granting Paswan an express right to stake a chief ministerial claim. Union ministers have publicly hinted that such an elevation is improbable, but Paswan has deflected such references, casting his ambition as long-term and focusing on influence over immediate office.
Meanwhile, the broader seat-sharing negotiations have intensified across both camps. The NDA is finalising distribution among its components, including JD, Hindustani Awam Morcha and Rashtriya Lok Shakti Party, while the opposition INDIA bloc is racing to formalise its side. With the election scheduled in two phases on November 6 and 11 and counting on November 14, every concession now carries outsized weight.
Kishor’s strategy leans heavily on discontent, especially among youth and communities who feel marginalized by current alignments. He has already taken aggressive stances, making corruption a key campaign theme and attempting to reposition voters away from the established axis of caste politics.
From the perspective of ground dynamics, regional leaders and party workers across Bihar are watching the Paswan-Kishor narrative with mounting interest. If a formal pact emerges, especially in constituencies where either or both parties hold sway, it could alter bilateral calculations in pockets across the state.