US-Japan Deal Falters As Japan Accelerates Missile Build-Up

Japan is advancing its long-range missile deployment programme while trade talks with Washington falter, signalling a shift in its security and economic strategy. The Defence Ministry has brought forward the rollout of the domestically developed Type‑12 anti‑ship missile—capable of striking targets up to 1,000 km—for installation at Camp Kengun in Kumamoto by March 2026, a full year ahead of schedule.

Parallel to these security developments, Japan’s chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, cancelled a planned visit to Washington intended to finalise details of a $550 billion investment package tied to tariff relief. The agreement, initially reached in July, envisions the United States reducing tariffs on Japanese imports to 15% in exchange for Japanese investments backed by government loans and guarantees. However, administrative hurdles persist—Tokyo demands amendments to the U. S. presidential executive order to eliminate overlapping duties, particularly on automobiles and parts, before confirming the investment terms.

The cancelled Washington visit and the delayed implementation of tariff rollback reflect mounting frustrations in Tokyo. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi urged the United States to act swiftly and faithfully on the deal to ensure economic security for both nations. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that a formal update on the investment framework is expected soon, underscoring the urgency of resolving the impasse.

Against this backdrop, Tokyo’s decision to fast‑track its missile deployment underscores a growing imperative for self‑reliant defence. The acceleration aligns with Japan’s broader strategy, initiated in 2022, to advance “strike‑back” capability amid mounting regional threats from China’s assertive naval posture, North Korean provocations, and evolving Russian threats. The Type‑12 system is part of Japan’s broader effort to boost defence spending to 2% of gross domestic product by 2027—up from about 1%—backed by a record ¥8.8 trillion budget request for fiscal year 2026.

The same defence package also includes plans to deploy U. S‑built Tomahawk cruise missiles, alongside unmanned aerial, surface, and underwater drones to strengthen coastal surveillance amid personnel shortages tied to an ageing population.
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